Thanks for the reasonable response.
The thing about Iraq is, as long as the US military is "liberating" that country that their oil infrastructure will be a constant target for insurgents who want us gone. Long run the decrease in their production will prolong their peak output till some unknown date in the future.
If their oil fields ever return to full output, which is I believe on the order of 1.5 million barrels per day, it's not going to make much difference in the long run. Consider that US daily usage is around 20 million barrels per day, or which about 12 million is imported. Current world demand is 84mpd and conservative projections for demand growth are on the order of 2.5% per year (buttumes a constant growth rate of world economies). That amounts to 2,100,000 bpd-- per year. So Iraq coming back on line at full production would theoretically absorb the demand increase for THIS year. Next year we're right back where we started and then you still have to consider other oil producers who are in decline now or are approaching their peak production.
The fact remains that all oil wells throughout the history of petroleum production follow a bell shaped output curve. US domestic oil production (lower 48) peaked in 1971. It has declined ever since at a measureable rate.
As I stated before, google Hubbert's Peak for more background on the science.
Roy
