SW London to Stansted

My normal response to someone asking "how do I get from A to B" would be to look at a map, or use the AA web site or any route planning software you may have. But when it gets to negotiating large cities, and especially London, it gets rather more difficult.

The challenge I have is to get from Richmond-upon-Thames to Stansted Airport to arrive at about 5:30am on a Wednesday (06:25 flight, valet parking, carry-on luggage only, will have on-line checked in, so could leave it a few minutes later at a push, but queues at security are a bit unpredictable). Naturally, with an arrival time like that, I want to spend every available minute in bed and not hanging around at the airport.

Now here's my dilemma. No mapping-routing software seems to be able to agree on the best route or time.

Option 1: Microsoft AutoRoute 2006 48.7 miles, 58 minutes. I really don't believe these figures. it chooses heading up to the North Circular at Chiswick, round the North Circular to the M11, then up the M11. 26 minutes to do 12.8 miles on the North Circular, that's an average of about 30mph. Is that really feasible on the North Circular, to maintai an average of 30, even at that time in the morning, with a maximum limit of 40 for most of it (I think) and lots of roundabouts and traffic light to negotiate? It's just that this is so much less than the other options.

Option 2: AA web site 48 miles, 1h 31mins. This takes the same North Circular route as Autoroute, but comes off up the A10 to pick up the M25, then round to join the M25. Unfortunately, it doesn't give a breakdown by time, so I can't tell how long it thinks it takes to do each stage of the journey.

Option 3: TomTom Mobile 5 73.3 miles, 1h 21mins. This chooses to head out down the M4, round the M25 and up the M11. Of this, 66 miles is on motorway, which it reckons will take 1 hour. I can normally beat TomTom's estimates on motorways (buttuming no traffic, which is a reasonable buttumption at that time in the morning), and might save 5 minutes or so here.

Option 3a: Tom Tom broken into 2 segments to force the route to go via the bottom of the M11 49.1 miles, 1h 22mins, just 1 minute more than the all-motorway option. Includes going straight through the middle of London (no congestion charge at that time in the morning). Strangely this is further than the AA's North Circular route (just). The 1st leg to the bottom of the M11 is at an average speed of 25mph

So, which to choose? I'm beginning to think there's not a lot in it. I think AutoRoute is rather optimistic, averaging 30 in the cbreasty and about 68 on the motorway. The difference between averaging 25 or 30 in the city can mean nearly 10 minutes difference. Does anyone have a decent idea of what I might manage to average at before 5am on a weekday? All in all, I'd guess about 1:10 - 1:15 whichever route. The all-motorway route leaves you buggered if you get stuck in a jam, but that risk can be reduced by checking the traffic before leaving, and the North Circular can trap you as well if there's a major chicken-up. Contingency time will be needed either way.

The journey back will bring a similar dilemma, being about 10:30pm departure on a Friday (before the next Bank Holiday, though holiday traffic will be all gone by that time). It matters a bit less, though, as there's no plane to catch this time.