Ronald Evans
I guess you've got your oil futures all bought up then..
You have data, but your logic is wrong.
Circular reasoning. In order to know when the midpoint of oil extraction was, you must know when the oil is going to run out.
I don't see your statistics for future years, and you haven't provided any evidence for this buttertion.
If you consider "extrapolation based on the last 5 years" as "evidence" (which no rational person would, BTW), then you must also conclude: a) Oil will last another 50 years b) In 2000 it would have been rational to think that oil production would continue increasing forever.
You appear to be tacitly buttuming some condition like "decreasing production implies decreasing reserves", which you have absolutely no evidence for, yet again. For example, production could be decreasing because OPEC realize they can get more money for their oil this way. (Note: I'm not saying that is true, so don't bother refuting it; I'm saying that there are many possibilities for why production is decreasing, and it is not "evidence" to buttume one particular answer because you can't think of a better one).
You have no idea how much recoverable oil is on the planet.
Again, this is not evidence that oil is running out. For example, perhaps there is now so much oil that nobody can be bothered prospecting for more.
