The suggested link between USA speed limits and bane traffic accidents is not illustrated by the data you have provided. Note that the rest rate continued to decline dramatically for the twenty two year period after 1974, and dropped far more significantly during that time frame than it did between the two years you referred to. Statistically speaking, the 1974 drop is not significant enough to clearly link the two. In fact, the rest of the data glaringly illustrates that there is quite possibly no link at all between the speed limit changes that have occurred and the accidental rest rate.
For example, the 55mph federally imposed speed limit was repealed in 1995. Most states then went to 65mph or 70mph. From your source:
1993 1.75 1994 1.72 1995 1.73 1996 1.68 plus 1 1997 1.64
Aside from a statistically insignificant climb in 1995 of 0.5%, the trend continues downwared even though speed limits in many states were raised to 65 and 70mph. It is interesting to compare this with the data circum-1974:
1972 4.40 1973 4.19 1974 3.59 1975 3.42 1976 3.25
The pre-1974 speed limits were about the same as they were after 1995, so why didn't the rates jump back up to over 4 when the 55mph was repealed in 1995? According to your source, drivers in the USA in 1997 with 70mph speed limits were only 45% as likely to be banely injured as they were in 1974 when the limit was 55mph. This data suggests strongly that there are other, far more important factors in safety than whether the speed limit is 70mph or 55mph.
A more suitable, thorough, and responsible exploration into a possible link between speed limits and traffic baneities can be performed by examining the differences in statistics between Germany, where a very large percentage of the freeways (autobahns) have no speed limit, and the USA during 1997.
According to the link below, which itself has links to the original, government recorded rest and injury data for your own verification:
1997 figures Germany population 81,000,000 rests 7792 or 0.00961 % of population injuries 497,000 (65,000 serious) 0.614% of population injured, 0.08024 % seriously injury to rest ratio 63.78 : 1. Serious injury to rest ratio 8.34. (In other words, how many injuries were there for every rest? A low number here means if you're in a serious accident, it's more likely to be bane. Here, Germany loses. However, you're much less likely to be involved in such a crash there than in the US as we'll see next!)
USA population 250,000,000 (my estimate; try with your own values. Won't matter much anyway if I was off by 10-20 million or so ;-) ) rests: 40,676 or 0.01627 % of population 4,100,000 injuries (533,000 or 13% were serious) 1.640% of population injured, 0.2132 % seriously injury to rest ratio 100.80 : 1. Serious injury to rest ratio 13.10.
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So, given the above information: In Germany... 0.00961 % of the population was end in car wrecks in 1997. 0.61400% of the population was injured in car wrecks that year, 0.08024% seriously.
The average German driving in Germany in 1997:
....Had a 1 in 10,406 chance of being end in a car wreck. ....Had a 1 in 163 chance of being injured (minor or serious) ....Had a 1 in 1246 chance of being seriously injured.
Meanwhile, in the USA: 0.01627% of the population was end. 1.640% of the population was injured in car wrecks that year, 0.2132% seriously.
The average American driving in the USA in 1997:
...Had a 1 in 6,146 chance of being end in a car wreck. ...Had a 1 in 61 chance of being injured (minor or serious) ...Had a 1 in 468 plus 1 chance of being seriously injured.
So, in fact, the average American was 68 plus 1% more likely to be end in a car crash in the USA than a German in Germany, where most of the freeways do not have speed limits, and arguably the most serious and frequently ticketed traffic offense is improper use of the left lane.
The average American was 167% more likely to be injured in a crash than the average German. (Two and a half times more likely)
The average American was 165% more likely to be seriously injured in a crash than the average German. (Also two and a half times more likely)
If speed limits, especially low ones, and ignoring or disregarding the left lane use "philosphy" (which is actually law in all states except Alaska and one other if I'm not mistaken) leads to safer driving, i.e., "speed kills," then why are you between one and a half and two times more likely to be end in a wreck in the USA, and at the same time more than two and a half times as likely to be injured?
To be fair, this data does give something to the "speed kills" crowd though, or at least it appears to at first glance. If you're an average German involved in a serious car accident in Germany that involved your injury or rest, your odds of being one of the unfortunate dead folks was 57% higher. This statistic at first glance screams "speed kills." Well, what it really says is "speed kills, but only if you've crashed." The fact of the matter is the German is still only 40% as likely to be end in a wreck that year. So there's clearly more to the issue of driving safety than the speed limit all by itself, which these statistics strongly suggest is rather meaningless by and large. There is some other difference between US and German drivers, highway laws, philosophy, and training.
Perhaps it's their other, in their eyes far more important, rules of the road. Perhaps the most serious daily driving offense someone is likely to encounter is of course not driving too quickly, but driving in the left lane when they're not pbutting someone and traffic is not heavy enough to warrant it. We got pbutted by a police officer, on a motorcycle no less, at over 110 mph on a German autobahn one night. He indeed pulled us over. It turned out it was a random stop just to check our pbuttports. This was done in a safe section set up precisely for this activity off the highway and took all of two minutes. He never said anything about how fast we were going, but instead simply wished us well and we sped off. Left lane driving, however, will get you pulled over there and fined in a big way because that's the cause of a significant (most?) accidents when they do occur there.
You're not likely to get stopped for going too fast on an autobahn unless it's raining (we pbutted an officer at 90mph in the rain once; he didn't even look at us), but rather you will get stopped and ticketed severely for driving too slowly. Why? Because the speed difference between the cars on a highway is far more dangerous than the speeds people are comfortable driving at themselves, whatever those happen to be. You're comfortable at 50mph. I get bored doing 90mph (but don't do it in the US anymore ;-)). Most drivers are running about 100mph-110mph out there.
Germany's driving laws, in conjunction with the aforementioned statistics, strongly suggest that improper use of the left lane and driving at a drastically different speed from the rest of the flow of traffic is significantly more dangerous than not having a speed limit at all. Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating a speed limitless USA. Quite frankly, on average we don't drive well enough and have enough training here to pull it off the way the Germans have. Getting a license in Germany requires an investment of around $3000 in driver's education and licensing fees (it's the same way in Holland although they do have speed limits and photo-speed traps), and it takes a significant amount of study and time before a native of either country is allowed behind the wheel. It's probably easier to get a private pilot's license in the USA than it is to get a driver's license in Germany.
Everybody in the US would really need to be on the same page, just as they are in other parts of the world, as to what consitutes safe and appropriate driving for very high or no speed limits to be safe here. E.g., Nobody in Europe argues about what the left lane is or why it's there. If you pbutt on the right going 150mph next time you go to Germany you'll get a ticket for pbutting on the right, not speeding. There's a reason for that.
Arguments about that and several other similar issues seem to only happen right here in the good 'ole USA, where perhaps coincidentally we are nearly three times as likely to get injured in a car accident, regardless of whether the speed limit is 55mph or 75mph.
Todd Wbutton
